Politic-Economic-Society-Tech

The two sides will be shaking hands by the end of the year 

By ROGER MITTON

Visiting Myanmar recently, it became evident that a political breakthrough is imminent. I had suspected this some time ago, but was prevented from checking it out because the military regime refused to give me a journalist's visa. Apparently, some of my stories had incurred displeasure, notably one about the mistreatment of National League for Democracy MP-elects in Pathein and another about the regime's business cronies. For more than six months, I could not get in. Then, toward the end of April, the authorities relented. I booked a flight immediately. 

As usual, once in Yangon, I sought to speak to people both in the regime and in the National League for Democracy (NLD), as well as businessmen, diplomats, NGO representatives, lawyers, doctors, journalists, religious leaders and members of the ethnic minorities. All of them, without exception, were thrilled that the regime was engaged in discussions with the NLD leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, aimed at ending the political stalemate. I learned that Maj.-Gen. Kyaw Win, the deputy director of the Office of Strategic Studies at the Ministry of Defense, was meeting regularly with Suu Kyi. I sought to find out more about him. 

It was not easy. Kyaw Win is a private person and does not give interviews to the press. One thing is certain: He is not a typical military man. Kyaw Win is a respected painter (his works are often exhibited at one of the galleries in Yangon's trendy Golden Valley suburb), an avid photographer (earlier this year, he was scouting round for a good digital camera) and a keen sportsman (once a month, he brings together all the military attaches at the foreign embassies to play tennis, badminton, golf or some other sport). 

Kyaw Win's interest in arts and culture is one of several things he has in common with Suu Kyi. Intriguingly, they are both the same age, 56, and both lost their father at a very young age. Hers, the modern nation's founder, Gen. Aung San, was assassinated when she was two years old. Kyaw Win's died soon after he was born, and he was raised with the help of monks in Mandalay. Both then attended school in Yangon at the same time -- she at the Methodist School, he at St. Paul's. It is said that the two get along well. In 1995, when Suu Kyi was released from house arrest, Kyaw Win told her: "I believe I'll be the one to negotiate with you sometime in the future." He has said that he finds her "congenial and nice," and that their "discussions on transition are going very well." 

Certainly, he appears well suited to the negotiator's art, having studied psychology at the University of Yangon. He was there during the student protests of July 1962, when troops shot dead a large number of students. After graduating, he attended officer training school in Yangon. He then saw anti-insurgency action in the field and likes to joke that an abdominal scar resulting from a botched appendix operation is a war wound. He was later assigned to the intelligence corps and became an acolyte of Than Shwe, now the nation's paramount ruler. 

Kyaw Win's dialogue skills were honed during the early 1990s, when he was a key figure in the talks that led to landmark ceasefire agreements with all but one of the nation's warring ethnic minorities. Now deputy head of the intelligence services -- only Khin Nyunt ranks higher in this department -- he has been entrusted by Than Shwe to deal with the Suu Kyi negotiations. If they reach an accord, it will be a tremendous achievement for both him and Suu Kyi. 

It is now nine months since they began talking. Admittedly, that is a very short time to resolve the political morass that this nation of almost 50 million has sunk into after half a century of misrule. But they are making progress -- if they were not, the talks would have been cut off long ago (both Suu Kyi and Kyaw Win are principled, no-nonsense types, who would not waste time talking unless something substantive were being achieved). The external signs are favorable. Since the dialogue began, large numbers of NLD members have been released from detention (including a new batch last week). In addition to its busy HQ on Yangon's Shwegontaing Road, the NLD has reactivated other branch offices. An apparent rapprochement with the International Labor Organization over the use of forced labor seems to be on the horizon, with the regime likely to allow the ILO to station a delegation in Myanmar to carry out first-hand checks on alleged abuses in sensitive border areas. Some Western governments have also been reassessing the effectiveness of their economic blockade, with the new U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell saying that in broad terms he has doubts about the efficacy of sanctions policies anywhere in the world. Even now, multinationals are studying Myanmar for opportunities and already Canada's Ivanhoe Mining has announced a $400-million investment plan. 

Ralph "Skip" Boyce, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state and incoming ambassador to Indonesia, visited Suu Kyi in February with the head of the American mission in Yangon, Priscilla Clapp. Later, Clapp said there were "rays of hope" for an end to the political stalemate. Soon after, the United Nations Human Rights rapporteur, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, paid a call on Suu Kyi. Afterwards, he said: "There are several signs that indicated evolution leading to an eventual political opening." Translated from diplospeak, that means: Prepare for a breakthrough. If that were not enough, Boyce said a few weeks ago, when passing through Bangkok: "[The dialogue] has been going on for eight months. We expect to see a concrete result in a short while." Such statements from top U.S. officials would have been tantamount to sedition a year ago. 

Meantime, ASEAN has been forging ahead and the fruits of the Thai Prime Minister's visit last week show that a new mood is in the air. Trade tariffs between Myanmar and Thailand will be cut to foster trade, a key northern border crossing has already been reopened, and steps to combat the drug trade were agreed upon. If this pace continues, it is almost certain that before the end of the year, the world's press will carry pictures of Than Shwe and Suu Kyi shaking hands. As the saying goes, you cannot cross a chasm in two small jumps. Suu Kyi and Kyaw Win have had the courage to take a massive leap. They deserve to reach the other side. And they will. Soon. 

source: Asiaweek.com, July 6, 2001