Politic-Economic-Society-Tech

Cambodian PM leaves his puppet image behind 

By Mark Baker, Herald Correspondent in Phnom Penh 

For a few months in 1993 Cambodia was ruled by Yasushi Akashi. As head of the United Nations transitional administration, the Japanese diplomat controlled a team of 21,000 and a budget of $A4 billion, in an effort to lead the country out of decades of civil war towards peace and democracy via internationally sponsored elections.

The result was a qualified success. Despite widespread violence and intimidation, more than 80 per cent of Cambodians voted. They handed a decisive victory to the royalist party, Funcinpec, rejecting the Cambodian People's Party which had run the country since 1979, when it was installed by the Vietnamese after they invaded to rout the brutal Khmer Rouge regime.

But the CPP leadership headed by Hun Sen refused to accept defeat and, under threat of violent retaliation, a compromise coalition was constructed enabling the rival parties to share power. 

"The CPP came in second but they controlled the administration, the police and the military," said Mr Akashi, who is back in Phnom Penh for the first time since 1993.

"We had to marry democracy and the need for stability."

It was a shotgun marriage bound to end in tears. In 1997, after four years of infighting and instability, Hun Sen launched a coup that robbed the royalists of the last vestiges of their election mandate and sent most of the Funcinpec leadership, including First Prime Minister Prince Norodom Ranariddh, fleeing into exile.

On his return to Cambodia this week Mr Akashi found a country that has turned full circle politically.

Hun Sen, the wily, one-eyed former Khmer Rouge guerilla commander, is still on top and more powerful than ever, but Prince Ranariddh is also back and again in coalition with CPP. The country is once more preparing for elections that could finally see the makings of the genuine democratic transition that the UN promised in 1993 but failed to deliver.

For the first time, the leadership of 1,621 communes across the country - for 25 years filled by CPP appointees - will be open to direct election in polls scheduled for February. 

"Even if there is cheating, this election is going to transform local administration in this country," says the United States Ambassador, Kent Wiedemann. "It is going to destroy the monopoly of the CPP on local power that it has held since 1979." Even if the CPP holds the most positions, the elections will enable other parties to strengthen their political foothold in provincial areas, from which to more effectively challenge the ruling party in the next general elections, due in two years' time.

The CPP's apparent willingness to loosen its grip on power is being seen as a measure of Hun Sen's growing confidence in his position and his progress in transforming himself from a puppet leader to an internationally recognised, and increasingly respected, head of government.

Still just 49, the Prime Minister has succeeded in neutralising all his adversaries in 22 years at the head of Cambodian politics.

The Paris peace talks and subsequent 1993 elections brought the CPP leadership in from the diplomatic cold and legitimised Hun Sen as a politician. His tough manoeuvring between 1993 and the 1997 coup marginalised both Funcinpec and King Norodom Sihanouk. By early 1999 he had rounded up the remnants of the Khmer Rouge guerilla movement, a process now due to have its denouement in the trial of the surviving leaders of the Pol Port regime following the passing of key legislation this week.

"He now sees himself as accepted by the world and accorded the respect he believes he deserves," Mr Wiedemann says. "He feels he's made it and that Cambodia has made it under his leadership."

Convinced of the strength of his position both inside the party and in the Government, Hun Sen recently vowed to stay on as prime minister until 2013. His confidence is due in large part to his success in restoring full control over the armed forces and the bureaucracy that the CPP enjoyed before the Paris peace talks, and in relegating Funcinpec to the periphery of power. Dr Lao Mong Hai, executive director of the Khmer Institute of Democracy, an independent think tank, said: "Now in the army, the police and in the ministries there is no real integration. The CPP is in command, and Funcinpec just has to go along with it. The royalists have been neutered: they are afraid of Hun Sen; they have learnt their lesson." 

But others believe the coming elections are a real chance for Funcinpec to rebuild its fortunes ahead of the crucial national elections in 2003. 

The popular and savvy Prince Norodom Sirivudh - a half-brother of the king and a former deputy prime minister who was hounded out of the country in 1995 on trumped up charges of plotting to assassinate Hun Sen - took over as Funcinpec secretary-general last week.

He is expected to re-energise a party that has floundered under the ineffectual leadership of Prince Ranariddh, seen as increasingly preoccupied with his prospects for succeeding his father, the king, who turns 80 in October and who suffers poor health. If Funcinpec does well in the communal elections it will have a base from which to again seriously challenge CPP at the next general election - particularly while it is still able to capitalise on its historical ties with a widely revered king.

The third-largest political party, headed by former finance minister Sam Rainsy, is popular with many poorer Cambodians. It is also expected to consolidate its support base in the communal elections.

Since the final collapse of the Khmer Rouge, Cambodia has enjoyed a level of peace and stability unrivalled since the 1950s. Inflation and the exchange rate have stabilised over the past two years and, while foreign investment levels are down, new small-business registrations are up and the economy is expected to grow by about 5 per cent this year.

The country's biggest problem now is its exploding population. At the end of the three-year reign of Pol Pot, in which at least 2 million people perished, the population was estimated to have shrunk to about 6.5 million. Today it has doubled to more than 12 million - half them aged under 18.

Overpopulation threatens to reverse the modest economic gains of recent years in a country where two thirds of the people survive on less than $A2 a day. While about 20,000 new jobs are created each year - mainly in the booming tourism and textile manufacturing industries - another 150,000 young people begin looking for work.

But with peace and the prospect of greater democratisation, many believe the country at last has a real chance to leave its tormented past behind - Hun Sen willing.

source: www.smh.com.au, 14 July 2001