Politic-Economic-Society-Tech

Dismal outlook for Sri Lanka's president

By B. GAUTAM
Special to The Japan Times

The political crisis is Sri Lanka appears to be worsening, and in the latest government's call for a ceasefire with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam -- fighting a long and bloody battle for the independence of the island's minority Tamil-speaking population -- one can sense a state of near panic, given the kind of terrorism that is now spreading the world over.
The Tigers have yet to accept the offer, which the government says is the first step toward peace with the LTTE.

For the administration, this is a major climbdown.

In fact, a plan backed by Norway and supported by India, the United States and others to bring a semblance of peace to Sri Lanka fell through because Colombo refused to agree to a ceasefire, which the Tamil rebel group insisted upon as a precondition to negotiations.

But with the U.S. now reluctant to include the LTTE in its ongoing war against terrorism, Colombo has few options to play around with.

Although Washington has all along been against the formation of an independent Tamil state, it has been urging Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga to negotiate with the Tigers.

When Indian newspaper The Hindu questioned a U.S. Embassy spokesman in Colombo on why America was advocating this line at a time when it is taking a hardline against terrorists, he answered that Washington was merely supporting the Sri Lankan government's own policy of seeking a political solution to the island's ethnic problem.

"It would be presumptuous of us not to support the stand of the Sri Lankan government," he said.

Kumaratunga has now been pushed to the wall, adding to the worries of her party, the People's Alliance, which is probably fighting what seems like a last-ditch battle on just about every front.

When 13 of her party members defected to the opposition recently, wiping out the government's already thin majority, Kumaratunga, facing the imminent humiliation of a no-confidence motion in Parliament, dissolved the House and called for fresh elections on Dec. 5.

This defection is the latest in a sorry tale of political horse trading. Last June, 11 members of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress withdrew from Kumaratunga's ruling coalition, leaving the president with no option but to suspend Parliament, since she could not, under the country's constitution, dissolve it for a year after it was elected.

Also, clearly unhappy with her nation's voting system, Kumaratunga tried calling for a referendum to ask the people whether they would like to change the pattern. She could not push this through, however, because she did not have the required majority for holding a plebiscite.

In desperation, she enlisted the support of the Marxist People's Liberation Front, which has not only the dubious distinction of spearheading two rebellions in 1987 and 1991, but is also suspected of having murdered Kumaratunga's husband in 1988.

The Front's support came with a price tag: no referendum and a reduction in her Cabinet's size. Kumaratunga survived, but on terms that were distasteful to her.

Now that the polls have been announced, this tieup is off, but Kumaratunga's People's Alliance may not have a smooth ride to an electoral victory. In addition to the fact that the president's record of addressing Sri Lanka's 18-year-old ethnic conflict is hardly a happy one, she also has been charged with corruption.

In fact, one of the most important promises she made to the electorate was that she would solve the Tamil problem. She has not been able to do that, and it is highly doubtful she can even if she gets another chance to form a government.

However, a point of solace for her -- and a dilemma for Sri Lankans -- is the fact that the opposition is not in great shape either. The political parties in the Opposition National Unity Alliance have but just one commonality in an otherwise divergent mix of interests: the partners' dislike for Kumaratunga's coalition.

The Marxist Front, which has decided not to align with either, could become the proverbial kingmaker after the Dec. 5 battle of the ballot.

In a way, this uncertainty looks like a pinprick in a country that has been ravaged by an ethnic dispute. There is little hope of peace in Sri Lanka unless the LTTE is forced out of its jungle hideout.

Unfortunately, there is a general feeling in Sri Lanka that Kumaratunga is not capable of talking to the Tigers due to her deep distrust of them. This could be an important reason why the people may not be inclined to return her to power.

What is far more disturbing than this political chaos is the fear that the LTTE is preparing to wage a bloody battle to recapture the town of Jaffna from government forces. The town, considered to be the Tigers' stronghold, was taken by Colombo in 1995 after a desperate struggle.

The LTTE is now stronger than what it was, but so is the government, thanks to the help of Israeli military advisers. Whatever the outcome of the strife, Sri Lankans seem destined for some very hard times.

B. Gautam writes for a leading Indian newspaper.


source: The Japan Times: Nov. 18, 2001